Market Overview

Markets are highly confident that the Federal Reserve will announce another cut in interest rates at the next policy meeting…

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakers US futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on…

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and…

Instead of falling after the Fed lowered rates, the 10-year and 20+ year yields have risen. This seems incongruous given…

Causes generate effects. As noted in my previous post, if causal conditions have changed, the «guarantee» offered by statistics is empty. This leads…

The odds continue to look favorable that the US will dodge an NBER-defined recession through the end of the third…

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve…

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cut The dollar continues to suffer but the euro’s strength is perplexing The positive…

Chinese stocks rose overnight, thanks to the flurry of easing measures from its central bank (chart). The People’s Bank of…

China has unveiled stimulus measures to boost the economy. The scale is not impressive — it is not an all-out…